AVOIDING ENTANGLEMENT: G20 RESPONSES IN A TAIWAN CRISIS - Nearly 18 months ago we began this research with the question: in the event of a Taiwan crisis, what type of economic sanctions could emerge? In June 2023, we published a major study analyzing possible G7 sanctions against China, modeling the associated costs. In April 2024, we broke-down China’s potential retaliatory measures and means of sanctions circumvention. For the final report in this series we have expanded scope to look at the economic implications and likely responses of the G20.

This new report examines three case countries from the G20 – Brazil, South Korea, and Indonesia – and their likely responses to both US and Chinese economic statecraft to assess the policy tradeoffs that countries outside of the G7 and US-allied countries may face.

The report comes one week before the G20 leaders’ summit in Rio de Janeiro.

This special launch event will introduce key findings of the report and explain the thinking behind the estimated responses with each case country in different escalation scenarios. Josh Lipsky, Senior Director of the Atlantic Council GeoEconomics Center, and Matthew Mingey, Associate Director with Rhodium Group, will discuss the report’s findings and recommendations.

This will be followed by a high-level panel discussion featuring Emily Kilcrease, Senior Fellow and Director of the Energy, Economics, and Security Program at the Center for a New American Security; Claudia Trevisan, Executive Director of the Brazil-China Business Council; and Logan Wright, Partner and Director of China Markets Research at Rhodium Group.

ORIGINAL AIRDATE: 11/13/2024