BY AIR AND BY SEA: WHAT DOES THE SPRING HOLD FOR UKRAINE? - Ukraine has weathered another winter of Russia’s full-scale war, albeit with some bumps. The delay in US aid has forced Ukraine to use ammunition sparingly and made it easier for Russia to finally capture the besieged town of Avdiivka. The recent spike in Moscow’s massive air strikes has inflicted major damage on Ukrainian infrastructure—including the Dnipro hydroelectric dam—and caused civilian casualties across the country, highlighting the critical need for more air defense systems from Ukraine’s Western partners.

At the same time, Ukraine has enjoyed major success at sea and in the air. At sea, Ukrainian drones and rockets have taken out at least 25% of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, driven that fleet out of occupied Crimea, and freed up the central and western Black Sea, enabling shipping in and out of Odesa. Ukraine has also had steady success against Russian fighter jets and Moscow’s A-50 intelligence aircraft. What’s more, drone fleets have repeatedly struck Russian oil refineries as far as 2,000 kilometers from the Russia-Ukraine border, taking out over 10% of country’s refined oil supply.

The Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center hosts an expert discussion on the state of the Russian war on Ukraine, including the efforts in the US House of Representatives to pass the aid package, European efforts to supply Ukraine the ammunition it needs today, and Ukraine’s fight on land, sea, and in the air. Speakers Evelyn Farkas and Ambassador John Herbst join to share updates from their recent trip to Kyiv.

ORIGINAL AIRDATE: 04/01/2024