THE NEAR CRISIS PROJECT: WHY WHAT YOU DONT KNOW CAN HURT YOU - The Scowcroft Center’s Forward Defense program hosted a public conversation on “The Near Crisis Project: Why What You Don’t Know Can Hurt You” on January 27, 2022. This event featured a panel of distinguished speakers from the research team of the University of Utah’s Near Crisis Project followed by a moderated discussion.

Why do some near-crises escalate to crises and others defuse? How can policy makers in Washington DC and beyond manage the risk of escalation? And how can the United States and its allies predict when a crisis could—or will—occur? In a new research initiative, a multi-university team advance the concept of ‘near crisis.’ When there is a perceived threat to basic values and a finite time to respond (though no large-scale military hostilities for the moment), the dispute has not yet tipped into a full-blown crisis. At a time when the United States and its allies are faced with Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, an increasingly aggressive China, and North Korea’s launch of missiles over Japan, these researchers provide new tools and insights to help policymakers identify and de-escalate potential flashpoints around the globe. By studying the crises of the past, this research team identifies potential crises and paints a broader picture of the full escalation cycle. The event discussed how different tools of national power—from hybrid warfare to economic and diplomatic sanctions—can help defuse near crises before they escalate and threaten the rules-based international order.

ORIGINAL AIRDATE: 01/27/23