US-CHINA LESSONS FROM UKRAINE: FUELING MORE DANGEROUS TAIWAN TENSIONS - Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub and Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security are pleased to host the launch of a new report, “US-China Lessons from Ukraine: Fueling More Dangerous Taiwan Tensions”, authored by Atlantic Council nonresident senior fellows John Culver and Dr. Sarah Kirchberger.
The United States and China have been arraying themselves for a strategic rivalry since 2017 through the continuing trade war, economic decoupling, and increasing rhetorical and military positioning for confrontation over Taiwan. Successive warnings by senior US military commanders that Xi Jinping may use military force in the near term could become the proverbial tail wagging the dog—and could impose a logic that makes a US-China war more likely, rather than enhancing deterrence. Therefore, the key question for the United States and its allies is how an increasingly truculent and belligerent Chinese leadership can be incentivized to walk back from the brink.
The event aims to address the findings of the report, including lessons that leaders in China, the United States, and Europe appear to be learning from Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine and how the application of such lessons could increase the risk of a crisis over Taiwan in the next few years. The event also aims to highlight the report’s policy recommendations for the transatlantic community confronting the possibility of a US-China conflict over Taiwan.
ORIGINAL AIRDATE: 6/16/23