WAR AND PEACE: THE STATE OF THE BATTLEFIELD AND TRUMP’S DIPLOMACY IN UKRAINE - Trump and his national security team appear determined to achieve a durable peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the next six months and have taken energetic, but not always consistent, steps to reach this goal.

In the weeks before Trump’s inauguration, the team put out elements of an approach that would require major compromise from both Ukraine and Russia. Zelenskyy would have to accept territorial compromise and at least a twenty-year moratorium on NATO membership, and Putin would have to accept a demilitarized zone patrolled by European troops and a major arming of Ukraine to deter future Russian aggression.

While Zelenskyy signaled a willingness to compromise on territory, Putin has demonstrated no readiness to consider any terms that would make it harder for Russia to take effective control of Ukraine. While Trump called out Putin as the obstacle to peace during his first week in office and spoke of major sanctions against Russia, public statements from Trump as well as his first official call with Putin (followed by one with Zelenskyy) have appeared to prioritize talks with Putin over talks with Zelenskyy. The developments have prompted a stock rally in Moscow and concerns in Ukraine and elsewhere that Trump may not insist on the rigorous implementation of elements that could vouchsafe Ukrainian security.

At the same time, Trump has expressed an interest in exchanging US weapons for Ukraine’s rare earth and other critical minerals and dispatched Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to Kyiv to follow up—another reason for Trump to do everything possible to broker a stable peace.

On the battlefield, Russia is grinding forward at great cost, but with fewer results in Donbas over the past few weeks. Moreover, Ukraine’s position in Russia’s Kursk region appears strong, with a new Ukrainian counteroffensive underway.

ORIGINAL AIRDATE: 02/21/2025