ARE ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN ON THE VERGE OF PEACE? - Dialogue between Armenia and Azerbaijan may be improving, but bilateral relations and each country’s relations with their many partners remain wrapped in contradiction. Yerevan and Baku appear closer than ever to agreeing a long-awaited peace deal—which would be a historic achievement—though new sticking points periodically arise as negotiations inch along.

Armenia suspended its membership in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization in 2023 and is searching for new security and development partners in the West. Azerbaijan—which has for decades warned of Armenia’s close ties to Russia—has decried a “lack of inclusivity” in Yerevan’s shift toward Washington and Brussels. Baku has long been a staunch supporter of Israel but is now courting its adversary Iran in a bid to establish new transit routes after years of tense relations. Turkey variously seeks to normalize ties with Armenia and lines up behind Azerbaijan’s forceful rhetoric.

Russia’s influence in the region has diminished slightly due to its war of aggression against Ukraine, but appears content to play spoiler, taking advantage of energy arbitrage opportunities and happy to use the South Caucasus countries to evade sanctions. Even so, a renewed emphasis on the Trans-Caspian Corridor has created new openings for regional connectivity and international trade for both Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Where is the Armenia-Azerbaijan relationship heading? How can the United States play a constructive role in sustaining peace and opening opportunities for prosperity in the region? The Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center gathers a panel of experts to discuss the current state of play.

ORIGINAL AIRDATE: 06/25/2024